Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
